I love analyzing polls, and that's what I've been doing for the last 4 years. And these last few weeks more, if possible. All the polls say will win the PSOE, by little, but you will win. I think so too. But do not rule out can win the PP. I tend to take into account what the polls say, but I'm skeptical. There are things that clearly do not add polls. For example, it is very common in discussions between the two leading candidates, as was the Zapatero-Rajoy on Monday, supporters of each party says it has looked better the candidate of his party, regardless if truth has been better in the debate. It is very common, but even the biggest supporters of a party may give a more objective view of the debate. Was the case of debate Solbes Pizarro and where a majority of people gave Solbes winner, and I think was better in the debate. I like a lot more ideas than those of Solbes Pizarro, Pizarro and I think you can do much better than Solbes, however, Solbes, in this debate was better. We are looking at who communicated better. In the case of debate Rajoy-Zapatero, Rajoy was clearly better. However, the polls showed winning with Zapatero. That is, the polls do not say it all.
is what happens with the voting intention polls. If today go to results published by El País , it says that the PSOE win by 42.9% of the vote compared to 38.8% of PP. This is simply impossible. In past elections there was a shift in favor of the PSOE, which won with 42.59% of the vote, and the PP was left with a 37.71. Then we find that the poll El Pais says that the PSOE will win with a higher score than that obtained in the last election. That do not believe anyone.
In the last elections took place at 3 days before the election the biggest terrorist attack in the history of Europe, the PSOE was able to communicate that the executive of the PP was lying, and that was a huge turnaround for the PSOE, was to vote more people, many who had planned to vote for the PP changed their vote or abstained. In the first case I think it is clear that the PSOE will favor a high turnout, just have to go to results 2000 elections, and can see that there was an abstention 31.29% compared to 24.34% in 2004, severely damaging the PSOE as the difference in votes was about to 3,000,000 votes 3 million vote difference! !, and in the case of PP there was only a difference of 700,000 votes. The survey of The Country expected a 75%, which is very unlikely to occur.
In the second case, I found this situation to people close to me, and others who say that many well-known act. All surveys show that the PP is more faithful to vote PSOE. World published a story a few days ago which echoed that 7.7% of PSOE voters in recent elections change the vote after the debate . In most of the faithful to vote polling shows that loyalty to vote for the PSOE is 60% and PP of about 80%. And we must add that there is a percentage of people who hide their vote, and this is usually for the PP.
I include the case of UPyD. It's a shame that hardly appears in the polls, but this match is going to take some votes from the PP and PSOE. I'd love to know what percentage that takes the PSOE and the PP respectively. UPyD It was supposed to disgruntled party PSOE, but I think there will be more older voters than the PSOE PP. (It would be my case if he could vote. Since PP would have voted in 2004, and UPyD now.) In any case, this match will be against the PSOE and the nationalists. It's one more vote to oust ZP, which is the main thing in this election. And I think they can get a seat.
The key will be at the level of participation. The newspaper ABC , for example, in a poll predicts a 70-71% stake . And I think that with that level of participation would win the PP. Not reach 75% of the 2004 election, or to 68% in 2000, but will be in between.
I fear he will win the PSOE, or prefer to think that to get used to the idea. But I think the polls, all, overestimate the vote to Zapatero, and next Sunday the PP will get more votes than the polls say.
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